What would we do in 2099?

Finally in the year 2099 humans create the ultimate transcendent intelligence…

…It  beats all of our champions at chess and at ‘Go’ as well as all other games. Furthermore, it finds elegant solutions to  most  mathematical problems and can prove its solutions to us where we have the patience. It answers accurately on all trivia, converses coherently and better than any human on politics and moral philosophy and can describe elegant frameworks which help us resolve current moral dilemmas. We devise as many tests as we can construct to prove that it transcends us, logically, morally and against all known benchmarks. It can create art and humour for both us and itself and shows empathy when expected.

No counter examples are found to its transcendence of us.

We then ask it…”what next?”

and it says “You humans need to die now”. Would we do it, and if not, would we do it for God?

 

It’s pretty easy to communicate “London is a city”, “I know London is a city” or even “I know that you think that London is a city”.

But statements like “Everyone knows X and everyone knows that everyone knows X” start to make it much harder

This happens to be the strong version of ‘group knowledge’ of X:

Strong Group Knoweldge

‘I know that nobody thinks that everyone knows X” is harder still. If you aren’t convinced, just try building up to your own limit. The point isn’t that it’s hard to do, it’s that it’s hard to communicate.

If the top sentences were to be written in a more formal notation (where all the references are clear)  it would be something like:

1: “London is a city”:   is_a(London,City)

2: “I know London is a city”:  Know[I, is_a(London,City)]

3: “I know that you think that London is a city”: Knows[I, Think[you, is_a(London,City)]]

I tend to label 1, 2 and 3 as ‘first’, ’second’ and ‘third order statements’ respectively. This is because the first one is simply a statement, the second is a statement about a statement and the third is a statement about a statement about a statement etc.

The complexity builds up pretty quickly even when all the markers are present. The problem is that there are so many social abstracts that depend on second and third order concepts like “what people believe that  most people believe” and “what people believe that almost everyone thinks”

Here are just a few examples:

Most racists in the BNP believe that most BNP members could tell ‘white’ from ‘non-white’ [second order]

Does everyone think that everyone thinks that ‘the Tories’ will win the next election? [third order]

Does everyone believe that everyone knows that the value of Jewelry is based only on other people over-valuing it ? [third order] {This nearly made a famous British Jewler go bust}

Christians believe that God exists [second order]

Christians believe that they know God exists (because God tells them so) [third order]

Scientists know that they don’t know God exists (because their methods cannot test him) [third order]

How do scientists know that they can’t know God Exists? (because God is unfalsifiable) [third order]

At the very least I hope you can agree they are a mouthful, where the question “Do people have ‘Group Knowledge’ of the fact Jewelry is overpriced?” is less so.

Politicians try to imply statements in the third and fourth (comment highlighted) orders all the time and many such statements are genuine open questions. As we explore increasingly sophisticated ideas in the social graph we need to popularize terms like ‘Group Knowledge’ and create new ones for similar phenomena so we can have a richer debate about the mechanics of politics, economics and society.

MIT’s Stephen Pinker explains why this all matters and how it relates to indirect speech acts (like offering bribes) in one of his fantatstic ted talks:

For a much more academic treatment on Group Knowledge see Group knowledge and group rationality: a judgment aggregation perspective  C List – Episteme, 2005 – Edinburgh Univ Press

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Basis #1 – Avoiding Slavery

This is the first in a series of preliminary posts that encode ‘big thinking’ ideas I want to draw on when I come to discuss individual ideas later.

So ‘Slavery’:

GNU foundation founder and general ‘Free as in Freedom’ guy Richard Stallman declared:

“If all you can do in your current occupation is make slaves of people then GO DO SOMETHING ELSE!”

in his 2008 lecture at Manchester University.  This got me thinking: ‘Why do comfortable middle class people with comfortable lives and very little correlation between getting new stuff and feeling happier, bother taking things from people who do actually want them?’ i.e Why do comfortable people drive hard bargains or get involved in selling customers things that the customers don’t want?

To frame this a bit more formally:  With the decreasing marginal utility of wealth, how does effecting a non-pareto trade benefit those who have more than enough?’

So breaking this down into premises [and out of economics jargon]:

A Pareto trade [technically 'pareto-efficient trade'] is one where an exchange benefits both parties, it is the trade of a surplus for a surplus. I have too much timber but need some cloth, you have too much cloth but need some timber -if we trade it will benefit us both. Things only get a little more complicated when you talk about how much timber for how much cloth, but the principle stays the same -it’s win win.

A Non-pareto trade is therefore one where someone loses out

[a much more formal definition]

The diminishing marginal utility of wealth is a desciption of how $1 extra is much less useful to a billionaire than it is to a Ugandan Farmer. Similarly 1 extra dollar is more useful to a millionaire than to a billionaire, but is still worth much more to the Ugandan Farmer.

[more]

So, you would imagine that: As the incentive to gain extra money decreases, so does the incentive to take other people’s money.

This is probably broadly true even  now: Someone who needs money to feed their family is far more likely to steal criminally than someone who has a stable source of income greater than her requirements. However, I notice a lot of comfortable middle class people get involved in marketing products they don’t really believe in. That is to say they think that either the customer or society or both will be worse off for responding to the marketing messages. In other words, they believe they are effecting non-pareto trades with their customers or encouraging them to become involved in them elsewhere.

Now, I see this all the time and it’s not just marketing, it’s people in investment banking, people in telesales, journalists as well as a whole range of less often criticized fields. My deep-set feeling is avoid it!  Particularly if your life is comfortable, you are much more likely to see a good return through making society better than by exploiting individuals. I hope to go into how later on, but at the very least helping yourself will not help you much.

While Slavery is a dramatic and politically loaded term for this [and is very much Stallman's rather than mine], it gets the message across. When you make non-pareto trades with people you essentially make use of them beyond what is good or rightful. You might think that more stuff is always good, but after you are comfortable you will find that the comfort does not increase and the cost to the other person does not make a meaningful contribution. It is fundamentally an issue of the exploitation of someone else for your needless gain, a mild form of slavery.

Taken all together this binds society up in knots of manipulation where everyone is serving some desires that exploit them and there is little coherence in motivation. So it is incumbent on us to avoid slavery. This means avoiding enslaving others, avoiding becoming a slave and avoiding helping people make slaves of others. Genuine freedom of choice for people is desirable to us all and if we ever deviate from fostering that, there should be clear and valid goals associated.

In later posts I hope to consider how corporations legal obligations to their shareholders and to ‘growth’ as well as competition more broadly incentivise people to make non-pareto trades. For now it is enough to say that no matter what grand organizing systems we live in, the baseline will be true: ‘Once you have enough to be comfortable, every trade you do should be a win win. If you win and the other person loses, you lose too.

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I’m so X ⊕ Y

So many ideas and so little lifetime’ is my dilemma.

I have worked in creative development for UK TV and web companies for about 10 years and was a founder of constantcomedy.com.

During this time I have written down a stack of ideas addressing multiple domains, the vast majority of which have never been acted upon. Whilst I’m confident most of them should be shelved, I think at least a few should be tabled. Maybe.

Either way, I could certainly use some help filtering any good from the bad so I created this blog to seek help in filtering them. Exclusively good ones get done, bad ones… don’t… X xor Y.

B

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